PMI points to easing downward pressure on the manufacturing sector in 3Q24
Our observations
• Large enterprises expand slowly while small and medium enterprises continue to contract but start to stabilize.
• Manufacturing output resumes expansion.
• Overall market demand starts to stabilize.
• Manufacturers lower ex-factory prices of their products amid falling input prices.
• Employment in manufacturing sector slightly decreases.
Policy outlook
• Starting with the release of a myriad of monetary policies in late September, China has rolled out a series of stimulus measures to boost economic growth.
• The Chinese government will continue to step up policy support for the economy and announce policy details soon.
Our forecasts for 4Q24
• We project a steady growth in manufacturing production.
• Headline PMI will gradually rise above 50.0.
• VAIO growth will register 5.0%-5.5% yoy.
• Real GDP growth will go up to 5.0% yoy.
• Exports will register a mid-single-digit year-on-year rise.
• Year-on-year growth rates for the purchaser price index and the PPI will go up, due to a recent rebound in global commodity prices and a low comparison base in 4Q23.