The HKUST Li & Fung Supply Chain Institute and the Expert Committee of the China General Chamber of Commerce are pleased to present the 23rd edition of our annual Ten Highlights of China’s Commercial Sector report.
According to the Institute, 2026 will be a pivotal year of structural transformation rather than just incremental growth. China’s commercial sector is expected to maintain steady expansion, underpinned by policies to expand domestic demand, deepen digitalization, accelerate green transformation and foster high‑quality, innovation‑driven development. These efforts are expected to reinforce China’s position as the world’s second‑largest consumer market, with total retail sales of consumer goods projected to grow by around 4.5% yoy in 2026. China’s GDP is forecast to record solid, policy‑supported growth at 4.7%, reflecting stable fundamentals and a continued rebalancing towards consumption‑driven expansion.
With input from more than 160 top-tier mainland experts, Ten Highlights once again identifies the top trends of the past year and anticipates the developments that will shape China’s commercial landscape in 2026.
The top 10 highlights of 2026 are summarised below.
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CPC recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan outlines development blueprint for China’s commercial sector
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Government works to expand consumer market and refine mechanisms to boost consumption
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New quality productive forces transform China's commerce and circulation sector
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Commerce-culture-tourism-sports integrated experiences and AI unlock new service consumption momentum
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Green consumption evolves from policy push to market pull through digital innovation and multi-generational engagement
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China's retail sector embraces multi-format innovation and quality enhancement
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China’s catering industry enters multi-dimensional transformation and value reconfiguration
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Reshaping county-level commerce to power urban-rural circulation and rural revitalization
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Self-pleasing, stress relief, and quality upgrades drive a new era of stratified consumption
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Multi-faceted push to accelerate 'going global' and build new trade momentum